Ohio State, ranked #4, battles Georgia, ranked #1,in the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl tonight at 8pm in Atlanta. Georgia is a -6.5 point favorite to make it to the Championship game again. To win this game, the Buckeyes need to do some serious work. We’ve poured through the numbers, and we think we’ve identified the keys to an Ohio State upset.
Keys to an Upset!
Here are our NEOSI Keys to victory for OSU.
1. Pass defense MUST be better!
The last three Buckeye opponents all accumulated over 300 yards in the air. Get pressure on Stetson Bennett.
Can’t let plays like this happen!
McCarthy throws deep… got a WIIIIIIIIDE open receiver
Cornelius Johnson. Sprinting – touchdown Michigan! 75 yards‼️
THEY SAID THE KID COULDN’T THROW THE DEEP BALL
…Well, he did it there
— James T. Yoder (@JamesYoder) December 23, 2022
2. CJ needs to run when the opportunity presents itself.
CJ Stroud’s first TD as a Buckeye was a 48 yard RPO run! Maybe not have designed runs, but if a lane opens and coverage is good, he needs to tuck and run. Give the Georgia “D” something to watch out for. Moving the chains and holding the ball is critical.
Here is his first TD as a Buckeye.
3. Both teams have 3 runners over 500 yards. So expect at some point to win the line battle.
Tony Walsh/UGA Sports Communications
OSU picture courtesy of Yahoo.com
Crazy to think both teams have runners that can be subbed out and no production lost! Luke Wypler, OSU Center, in his media comments this week was excited for the opportunity!
BARBARA PERENIC/COLUMBUS DISPATCH
“It’s going to be a great test for our offensive line and I think we’re all really excited to have that opportunity.”
4. Touchdowns, not field goals! Buckeyes need 6 points more than 3’s.
Day needs to convert every red zone opportunities into TDs. Ohio State’s TD rate in the red zone is 44/58 (74.9%). UGA has 97% overall success rate in the red zone, but their TD % is only 67.6%.
5. Day not overthinking or trying to be the smartest man in the room.
OSU v Michigan. 4th and five. Key moment in the game for Ohio State. Day opts to punt it away. CJ Stroud was begging to go for it. And then Michigan took that punt 80 yards for a TD and the rout was on! Ari Wasserman with the Athletic wrote that after the Michigan loss there was tension in the OSU locker room a few days before the game. At home? As a favorite? He needs this game, badly, to get the OSU social media fanatics off his back!
6. Spread the field with your WRs and TEs.
Photo by Jay Laprete, The Associated Press
The super sophomore tandem of Marvin Harrison, Jr. and Emeka Egbuka are the only two teammates to be in the top 20 in TD’s. They need to be targeted in creative ways. Passing, running. Whatever you can do to get them the ball quickly will help.
7. Win 3rd down!
Georgia is #4 in the country at third down conversions over 50% of the time! OSU is only at 46%. Defensively, Georgia is #2 defensively at opponents only converting 26.7% of the time. OSU? 30.5% and in 11th place. Get the Dawgs off the field and limit their offensive touches!
8. Embrace that you are the UNDERDOG!
Feed off it! Make it your mantra! Cade gets it!
The #CFAPeachBowl is @OhioStateFB's second chance on the season. 🙌@cstov8 is helping the Buckeyes embrace adversity and the underdog mindset. pic.twitter.com/Tz34uXeRNT
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) December 29, 2022
The Game Information
Time: 8 PM EST
Live Stream: ESPN.com and ESPN app
TV: ESPN
Spread: Georgia -6.5
OVER/UNDER: 62.5 points
Money line: Georgia (-265) OSU (+225). You win $100 when you bet $265 for the Bulldogs. You win $225 when you bet $100 on OSU.
Prediction
Georgia wins, 37-34. Both teams will score, but Georgia will win on a late field goal. And the pressure on Ryan Day will increase exponentially!
Hope you like my takes! Please follow me on Twitter @Petrorock44. Comments always appreciated!
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