The 2023 MLB season is around a month old. After all was said and done before spring training, most
knowledgeable baseball fans and writers had Minnesota, Cleveland, and Chicago battling it out for the
Division title, with Detroit and Kansas City in their own little inferiority contest. Parts of those
predictions are spot on, while others missed the mark.
Accurate prediction: Minnesota and Cleveland are clearly the best 2 teams in the AL Central. What’s
interesting is how the Twins, under ex-Cleveland executive Derek Falvey and Thad Levine (collectively,
“Falvine”) have rebuilt the team to be similar to the Guardians: strong starting pitching and less than
robust hitting.
This is evident from looking at the stats from each team’s top-line starters:
Minnesota (Lopez, Gray, Ryan)
QS 7-W 9-L 3-IP 73.0-H 47-R 16-ER 16-BB 19-SO 88-HR 6-ERA 1.97-WHIP 0.90
Cleveland (Bieber, Quantrill)
QS 6-W 4-L 4-IP 46.67-H 48-R 18-ER 17-BB 11-SO 31-HR 3-ERA 3.28-WHIP 1.26
A clear advantage for Minnesota that, at first glance, would reveal the Guardians’ really missing Triston
McKenzie. But is that true? Let’s look at the stats from the other starters on each team:
Minnesota
QS 1-W 2-L 5-IP 34.33-H 35-R 18-ER 16-BB 7-SO 38-HR 9-ERA 4.19-WHIP 1.22
Cleveland
QS 4-W 4-L 5-IP 54.0-H 59-R 35-ER 32-BB 14-SO 36-HR 4-ERA 5.33-WHIP 1.35
Due to McKenzie’s injury, the Guardians have had to rely on their renowned treasure trove of starting
pitchers to slog their way through the first third of the season. Given they are only a game behind the
Twins, it’s fair to say that if the Guardians had McKenzie since Opening Day the team may very well be in
first place right now. Yes, he is missed!
The rest of the predictions have fallen short of the mark. Chicago still can’t get out of their way at
Guaranteed Rate Field; it seems like the Mighty Whities built their team from the Sporting News instead
of factoring in playing in their home shoe box 81 games a year. Detroit (having swept Cleveland in a
doubleheader earlier this week) appears to have improved starting pitching. A team to watch, and I
wouldn’t be surprised if the Tigers end up ahead of Chicago by the end of the season. Finally, the Royals
are one of several “dregs of society” teams in MLB this year. While Minnesota and Cleveland hardly have
starting lineups that stoke fear in opposing pitching staffs, compared to the Royals they have Aaron
Judge-like offensive production. Putting the ineptness of Kansas City into perspective, Minnesota has a
4-6 road record against Miami, the Yankees, and Boston – and 3-0 against Kansas City. A large factor in
who will win the AL Central this year is who has the better record against the Royals this year.
Next week, I will dive into what other aspects will be telling in determining whether the Guardians keep
the AL Central crown, or cede it to (who I believe is) the better team – the Minnesota Twins.
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