Quantification of an Ace: 2023 Performance and Comparison Between Cleveland Guardians and Minnesota Twins

Photo by Charles Murray

OVERVIEW

Defining an ace is a lot like SCOTUS Justice Potter Stewart definition of obscenity. In a case in the 1960s, Justice Stewart claimed that, while he couldn’t precisely define obscenity, “I know it when I see it.” In other words, if you feel Shane Bieber and/or Cal Quantrill are aces, who am I to tell you otherwise?

This article will establish admittedly arbitrary standards for qualifying to be an ace in any particular MLB season. The 2023 aces to date will then be identified – it’s a short list. Finally, I will compare the starting pitchers from both legitimate contenders for the AL Central title – the Minnesota Twins and the Cleveland Guardians. There are starting pitchers that are performing just short of being an ace.

STANDARDS 

Let’s face it: if you want to be considered an ace, you better pitch like one. Admittedly, the lack of a major-league quality offense hampers both the Guardians and the Twins in getting their starters to ace level. I’ll explain that in this section.

The first standard is availability. Unfortunately, a stint on the IL is not going to help your cause in this regard. The standard I’m using as of June 23, 2023, is a minimum of 40 innings pitched at home for home evaluation, and 40 innings pitched on the road for road evaluation.

The second standard is quality starts. A quality start is one where the starting pitcher works a minimum of 6 innings and gives up 3 earned runs or less. I understand that not every quality start ends up as a win. So do Guardians and Twins fans. But to be an ace, his starts at home or on the road must be at least 75% quality starts. Not looking at whether his teams wins or loses. IF you have 8 starts at home, 6 better be quality starts to qualify for being an ace. This takes into account our two teams, which are (to be honest) pathetic offensively.

The third standard is ERA. In my view, aces shut down the opposing team – not merely win the game. As well, their ERA needs to be clearly in the top 10% of starting pitchers. For this evaluation, I arbitrarily picked an ERA of 2.50 or less. There should be no doubt that those pitchers have shut-down ability.

The fourth and final standard is WHIP. Aces has 1-2-3 innings. A lot. In fact, it should be the norm. Even the best starting pitchers lay an egg on occasion, though. WHIP is a good tool to use to evaluate how well they keep traffic off the bases. For this evaluation, a starting pitcher needs a WHIP of under 1.00.

So, to be considered an ace at the present moment in the 2023 MLB season, a starting pitcher will need to have pitched at home at minimum of 40 innings, have at least 75% of his starts be quality starts, have an ERA under 2.50, and a WHIP of under 1. Too strict? Let’s see.

2023 ACES

Not surprisingly, no starting pitcher away from his home park qualified under these criteria. IN their home park, believe it or not there are 4 starters that qualified.

1. Zac Gallen, Arizona: 54 IP, 100% QS, 1.00 ERA, 0.88 WHIP
2. Marcus Stroman, Chicago Cubs: 52 IP, 87.5% QS, 2.25 ERA, 0.85 WHIP
3. Framber Valdez, Houston: 66 IP, 80% QS, 2.05 ERA, 0.98 WHIP
4. Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay Tampa Bay: 47.67 IP, 75% QS, 1.89 ERA, and 0.92 WHIP

COMPARISON OF GUARDIANS AND TWINS STARTING PITCHERS 

While each team has above-average starting pitching, there are only 3 starters between the 2 teams that hit on at least any of the 4 criteria listed above. I’ll start with the Guardians since this is a Cleveland sports blog.

Shane Bieber at Progressive Field: 38 IP, 66.7% QS, 1.89 ERA, 1.13 WHIP. The Guardians are 5-1 in his home starts, so the team is generating enough offense to win when he’s pitching. Enjoy Shane while you can.

Sonny Gray at Target Field: 51 IP, 44.4% QS, 2.29 ERA, 1.16 WHIP. Gray’s pitching has ticked down a bit in the last month. Minnesota is 5-4 in his home starts, and I know at least 2 of the losses were due to bullpen meltdowns. Lately his pitch count has increased, and well-known stat freak Rocco Baldelli has only let him go 5 innings per start. Of course, Gray wants to go longer and has gone at it in the Twins dugout with Baldelli. Gray is a free agent after this season, and I would be shocked if he signed with the Twins for 2024.

Joe Ryan at Target Field: 46.67 IP, 57.1% QS, 2.70 ERA, 0.79 WHIP. Ryan has evolved, in only his second MLB season, into the # 1 starting pitcher for the Twins. His 3H, 9K shutout of Boston – a game the Twins really, really needed to win – is evidence of that. I expect Ryan to be a serious contender for the ace list in the near future.

CONCLUSION

Cleveland and Minnesota seem to be conjoined twins. Elite starting pitching, banjo hitting. The lack of reliable offense causes starters to lose more quality starts that teams without that handicap. Both bullpens are coming around with the warm weather; hopefully, they won’t be so burned out by overuse that they become arsonists. Trust me, you don’t want a Guardian equivalent of Emilio Pagan on your team. It’s bad enough he’s on mine!