This year’s Kentucky Derby has the makings of being the most unpredictable betting event with at least seven horses that can win or finish out of the money. But with that obstacle looming large over me, I submit my choices to you all. Remember, I am NOT a professional prognosticator like Punxsutawney Phil but I try to read all I can. Watch prior races on YouTube. Read the Daily Racing Forum. And listen to great jockeys like Jerry Bailey.
So with that introduction, here are my top three horses and my favorite long shot. We would LOVE to hear your choices in our comment section or on social media.
Top 3 Derby Picks
Emerging Market Win
So Happy Place/Show
Further Ado Place/Show
Favorite Longshot
Litmus Test
My Reasons
When I first started looking at this race about a month ago, So Happy was the horse I had a great deal of interest reading about. Santa Anita winner. Mike Smith jockey. Fast. But unproven at this length AND was not really challenged by other Derby horses. He piqued my interest first. Hate to throw away first impressions!
Further Ado is another horse that stood out. Winning the Blue Grass Stakes. Great rider in John Velazquez. Super fast but will he tire at the 1 ¼ mile Derby? He has won at Churchill before. If Jerry Bailey, a long-time jockey picks him as his winner, how can I not include him in my top 3?
But for me Emerging Market has my vote for claiming the 152nd Kentucky Derby. Flavien Prat riding, Chad Brown training and a championship pedigree. I am a bit concerned with only two starts. But both were wins, so there’s that!
I did not choose to include any Florida Derby entrants, like Commandment, Chief Wallaby and The Puma, which is usually one of the best predictors for Derby success. But I was high on The Puma until his scratch this morning. I had him in my top three!
I am waiting to make my Place and Show decision, though. 15-8-18 will be my trifecta, but could be 15-18-8. A statistical note: always pick a favorite in the trifecta. I believe 11 of the past 14 years the favorite has been in the top three.
Longshot
Now the longshot is different. I can see a few horses there. I picked Litmus Test because no one has been talking about this. Bob Baffert trained this horse and said early in the year this is his best horse to win. I know the colt’s last race was not great – a seventh-place finish against tough competition. But I like his four post position. He was one of the top horses in 2025. Yet, I am concerned if his rider, Martin Garcia, will get him quick out of the gate or cause havoc like in prior races? (See the Breeders Cup in 2014 and last year’s Derby!)
All told this could be one of the most fascinating and exciting Derby’s in year’s past. So make sure you are watching at 6:57 PM EST on NBC or the TwinSpires app or in the grandstand at Churchill Downs.
Good luck to all!
Who do you have winning? Let us know!
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