The Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals will fight for football supremacy in Ohio during the NFL’s 2022-23 season, and bettors should plan to back the Bengals in most head-to-head comparisons.
There will be a big asterisk on all of Cleveland’s betting odds until embattled QB Deshaun Watson’s disciplinary hearing is resolved. The likelihood of a suspension seems all but certain, but it’s the length that is unknown as of yet. Early reports indicated that the NFL was seeking a season-long suspension, but that may be negotiated down by the NFLPA. Six games? Eight games? Until Watson’s hearing concludes, it’s pure guesswork.
In related news, the Browns finally traded disgruntled QB Baker Mayfield to the Carolina Panthers last Wednesday. So, third-stringer Jacoby Brissett will be Cleveland’s likely starter at QB to begin the season.
In stark contrast, the Bengals have one of the league’s best passers in Joe Burrow. They also have game-breaking WR Ja’Marr Chase and RB Joe Mixon on the roster. Cincinnati’s young trio of offensive studs helps form a nucleus that should produce long-term success for Who Dey nation.
Super Bowl 57 Futures Odds (DraftKings)
Bengals +2200
Browns +2800
Edge: Cincinnati
The Bengals are coming off last year’s run to the Super Bowl, which ended with a 23-20 loss to the Los Angeles Rams. This is an absolute no-brainer on which Ohio team has a better opportunity to capture the Lombardi Trophy next February. It’s the Bengals by a landslide.
Season Win Totals (FanDuel)
As of this writing, Cleveland’s win total was off the board at most sportsbooks. Caesars Sportsbook was among the books offering 9.5 on the Browns’ season win total after Watson was acquired in March. Those odds were no longer available as of this writing, but Las Vegas-based Circa Sports offered the following season win total for Cleveland.
Circa Sports – Browns Season Win Total
O 8.5 (+100)
U 8.5 (-120)
Circa Sports – Bengals Season Win Total
O 9.5 (-125)
U 9.5 (+105)
Edge: Cincinnati
The Bengals’ win total is juiced to the over, meaning you’ll have to bet $125 to win $100 if you think they’ll win at least 10 games. Cincy went 10-7 during last year’s regular season.
If you believe that Cleveland will be without Watson for a considerable number of games, take the under 8.5 wins. Brissett has proven to be serviceable as a backup QB, but he’s far from the generational talent that Watson is at the position. Brissett started five games for the Miami Dolphins last season after Tua Tagovailoa was injured. He produced a record of 1-4.
Player Prop Comparison: Nick Chubb Vs. Joe Mixon (Total Rushing Yards)
It doesn’t seem fair to compare QBs and WRs because Cincinnati’s Burrow and Chase are so superior to anything that Cleveland can offer at those positions (assuming Watson is suspended). Let’s instead focus on the No. 1 running backs for each team. DraftKings offered these props on rushing yard totals for Chubb and Mixon, respectively.
Rushing Yards
Nick Chubb 1,200.5
Joe Mixon 1,050.5
Edge: Cleveland
Given the uncertainty at QB, the Browns will need to run the ball effectively to have a chance to win. Oh, and there’s this, Cleveland is really good at it. Chubb led the Browns with 1,259 yards rushing last season. He was second in the NFL behind only the Colts’ Jonathan Taylor. Nixon finished third in the league with 1,205 rushing yards.
The Browns also have speedster Kareem Hunt in the backfield, and he can potentially cut into some of Chubb’s production. But we like Chubb, as Cleveland’s primary workhorse, to outproduce Mixon in rushing yards again this season.
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